David Quammen, a science writer renowned for his accurate prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic in his 2012 book Spillover, is now sounding the alarm on potential new global health crises. His concerns center around the H5N1 bird flu and a newly identified coronavirus, HKU5-CoV-2, discovered in bats in China. Quammen emphasizes that the risk of another pandemic is not a matter of “if,” but “when.”
David Quammen identifies the H5N1 strain of bird flu as a significant concern due to its potential to mutate and spread among humans. Although human-to-human transmission has not been observed, the virus has infected over 18.5 million birds and various mammals in recent outbreaks. The high mutation rate of H5N1 increases the likelihood of it adapting to human hosts, potentially leading to a new pandemic.
In addition to bird flu, Quammen points to HKU5-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus found in bats in China. This virus shares similarities with SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, and has shown the ability to infect human cells in laboratory settings. Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology have expressed concern over its potential to spill over into human populations.
David Quammen also highlights other viruses that could pose future threats, including Ebola and various mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever. He notes that climate change and global travel can facilitate the spread of these diseases beyond their traditional regions, increasing the risk of outbreaks.
The science writer emphasizes that human activities, such as industrial farming and environmental degradation, create conditions conducive to viral spillovers. Unsanitary conditions in large-scale meat production facilities can serve as breeding grounds for new viruses. David Quammen advocates for stricter climate policies and a reduction in meat consumption to mitigate these risks.
