It often pays to be cautious when Donald Trump makes a promise. The current POTUS has long been known for embellishing and overstating his intentions, and throughout both his presidency and the years leading up to it, he has issued countless ambitious pledges that never fully materialized.
Yet one of his latest vows is drawing intense attention — and it’s one he may genuinely be held to: a promise to give nearly every American a $2,000 dividend.
The funds, according to Trump, would come from revenue generated by his controversial tariff plan. He pledged that the payment would go to all citizens who do not fall into the “high income” category.
On Truth Social last week, Trump wrote:
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!” he wrote. “With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER. We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion.
“Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place.”
He added: “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
Notably, the former president did not offer a timeline for the payout, nor did he clarify who exactly would qualify for the dividend and who would be excluded.
Unsurprisingly, questions quickly emerged regarding the feasibility of the plan.
The Guardian explored potential obstacles, highlighting two core issues.
The first is the staggering cost. Estimates suggest the payments could run between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on whether children are included and how eligibility is defined.
Economist Erica York wrote:
“If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. … Adjusting for that, tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.”
The second challenge lies in the legal uncertainty surrounding the tariffs themselves — the very source of the proposed dividend money.
The Supreme Court recently heard arguments on the administration’s use of emergency-powers law to impose the tariffs, following three lower court rulings deeming the approach illegal. If the tariffs are overturned, the entire dividend proposal would collapse with them.
Despite this, Trump offered an update late last week, hinting that any payments would not arrive until 2026.
“It will be next year… The tariffs allow us to give a dividend. We’re going to do a dividend and we’re also going to be reducing debt,” the president told reporters aboard Air Force One, according to The New York Post.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also addressed the matter during a recent appearance on Fox Business, saying: “We will see. We need legislation for that.”
As with many politicians, Trump has a long history of making grand promises that don’t always come to pass. But this pledge carries a weight that others might not.
Failing to deliver broad policy changes or abstract improvements to the cost of living might cause frustration — but promising Americans, in clear terms, a direct $2,000 payment is something voters are unlikely to forget.
Do you believe Trump will ultimately follow through? Share your thoughts in the comments.
