Donald Trump’s name is once again surfacing in Nobel Peace Prize chatter, as traders on the prediction platform Polymarket now give the former U.S. president a 9% chance of securing the prestigious award in 2025.
The recent spike in market odds comes amid renewed attention on the Abraham Accords, the diplomatic agreements brokered during Trump’s presidency that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations.
Headlines revisiting the accords — combined with Trump’s own campaign messaging touting his role as a peace negotiator — appear to be fueling speculation among traders that a Nobel nod may be on the horizon.
While still a long shot, the rising interest suggests that Trump’s foreign policy legacy continues to spark debate as the Nobel committee prepares for next year’s decision.
